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Homeرسائل رأي عام/Public Opinion LettersRiad Kahwaji: Trump and the Middle East: Challenges to Regaining US Supremacy

Trump and the Middle East: Challenges to Regaining US Supremacy
Riad Kahwaji/17 November,

The Arab world, like other parts of the globe, was surprised with the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election and is still trying to figure out how to deal with President-elect Donald Trump. It was no secret that many Arab leaders had hoped for a Hillary Clinton victory, not necessarily because they hated Trump or his policies, but because they did not and still do not know much about him. For them Clinton was a known figure they dealt with for years as a First Lady, then as a Senator and finally as a Secretary of State. They have heard of Trump as a businessman and very few Arab figures have done business with him. Hence, Arab reaction to Trump’s victory was more about the fear of the unknown.

It is really not clear why many of America’s Arab allies where hoping for Clinton victory while at the same time seeking a quick end to the policies of President Barrack Obama Administration in the Middle East. Arab officials, especially in the Gulf, have been very critical of Obama’s policies that significantly reduced America’s footprint and influence in the region and allowed Iran and Russia to move in and establish control (jointly or separately) in many parts of the region like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Of course U.S. allies in the Middle East, especially Israel, were very surprised and critical of the nuclear deal with Iran that was reached after secret talks between Tehran and Washington.

Arab officials and Israel believe Obama has done little to check the spread of Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias in the Levant and Gulf region. But what many of Clinton’s supporters in the Arab world fail to see is that most of Obama’s Middle East policies were conceived when she was the Secretary of State. Clinton was expected to preserve Obama’s legacy and he

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    Name: Shabakat al-Elam al-Iraqi(Iraqi Media Network, or IMN)

    Type of movement: One of Iraq’s so-called "independent agencies," with oversight over national media. Often furthers the propaganda aims and political interests of the muqawama (resistance) and the Coordination Framework (CF), who hold a majority on the agency's board.

    Role: The IMN's official mission includes the following goals:

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    • Present news about current events in a style that emphasizes inclusiveness, no bias, and independence.
    • Reflect the government's activities and events according to what the editor-in-chief decides.
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    Profile: Arab Tribal and Clan Forces

    A newer unit of Arab militiamen in Syria, raised by pro-Assad figure Ibrahim al-Hifl to form an unbroken corridor of Iran-backed tribal fighters between Deir al-Zour and Aleppo.

    Name: Quwwat al-Qabail wa al-Ashaer al-Arabiya (Arab Tribal and Clan Forces, or ATCF).

    Type of movement: Tier 3 fasail (armed group) engaged in kinetic military and paramilitary actions in Syria, particularly the eastern region, including Deir al-Zour province. Primarily focused on combating the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), reinforcing Arab tribal power, and opposing U.S. and Kurdish influence. 

    History: 

    • On September 20, , Ougaidat tribal sheikh Ibrahim al-Hifl announced the formation of an “Army of Arab Tribal Forces” to fight the Kurdish-led SDF amid ongoing clashes between the SDF and disgruntled Arab tribesmen in Deir al-Zour province. He called on members of the Ougaidat tribe for financial support and also requested assistance from the Baggara, another influential tribe in the Middle Euphrates River Valley. 
    • Previously, on August 31, Hifl had joined the Arab tribal rebellion and became the figurehead of the "Arab Tribal Forces" militant group, making the town of Diban the center of this revolt. 
    • Hifl’s Arab Tribal Forces did not support Ahmad al-Khubayl, better known as Abu Khawla, even though the latter hailed from the Baqir clan of the Ougaidat tribe. In an audio message leaked during the uprising, Abu Khawla threatened Hifl.
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